August 26, 2008

I thought this was execellent

To an economist, any conceptual distinction between "hedging" and "speculation" is inherently problematic. When an oil refiner takes a position with futures contracts, it is unlikely to be ignoring its own guess as to where prices are heading. But making a bet based on such guesses seems to be the definition many people have in mind when they speak of "speculation." On the other hand, when a pension fund manager takes a modest long position in commodities, that can reduce the overall variance of the portfolio due to the negative correlations between commodity price changes and other asset returns, which would most naturally be described as hedging against inflation risk. The idea that the motives of a given trader can always be classified as either pure hedging or pure speculation, and that the positions of commercial versus noncommercial traders reported by the CFTC give us meaningful information about those motives, strikes me as a very dubious proposition. Discovering a potential "misclassification" could hardly be the basis for becoming legitimately alarmed
. More speculation about those oil speculators

August 25, 2008

This is madness

I'm pretty sure every regular reader around here was at my wedding. As you may recall, TheBlueEyedGirl and I choose A Whole New World from Disney's Aladdin as our song. A bit of an embarrassing choice but we had our reasons. Nick Pitera is a 22 year old animator who works for Pixar who sings a version of this song that will surprise you. If you don't care for the song, just skip to 50 seconds in and watch from there.

No, I don't know how he does it. I'm pretty sure this is real.

He went to Ringling College of Art and Design, which sounds like Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Clown College but is different. I was sad to learn that the clown college closed in 1997.

August 24, 2008

Unpleasant truth of the day

In sport after sport, evidence shows that the top female professional athletes in the world are on par with the best American 14- and 15-year-old boys.
Olympian Political Correctness

I had a friend in college who's high school soccer team had played and then tied the American woman's World Cup team. Those are the ones that won the contest and that woman took her top off in celebration. Another friend in college, by no means the best athlete in my fraternity said that he ran his track and field event in high school faster than the woman's world record. As for me, I bet the only thing I could could do better than the woman's record is the leg press, where I can do about 700 pounds.

August 23, 2008

Tune the engine all you want, but if you need a lot of power then buy a big one

High-Aptitude Minds: The Neurological Roots of Genius is an article that attempts to elucidate the causes of intelligence through the findings of a series of experiments by neurologists. A couple of things struck me about these papers.

The first is that the article mentions sample sizes in these experiments and they are all very small, with none larger than 50. There is a strong concern that with this small sample that phenomena involving a large number of parameters will not appear distinct from noise. In one experiment mentioned, an experimenter measures 10 brain regions in 47 people. Even if brain weight is a cause and not an effect of intellect is a big if. Arguendo, if there is covariance in the distribution of these regions then a sample this small could have 110 parameters (10 coefficients and 100 entries in the covariance matrix). You can't have more parameters than members of your sample! Even if they are all independent you'd still have 20 parameters and 47 observations. That's at the very lowest bounds of what is enough data to do statistics.

Second the causality arguments seem flawed to the point of establishing nothing. The seem to fall into two categories. The primary one is that somehow correlation is causality, that is, I observe a simple correlation between two data series I observe therefore one causes the other. The alternative is post hoc ergo prompter hoc, which is that I did something and then something happened and therefore I must have caused it.

I recognize that MRI time is expensive and funding is scarce. But if this is the best you can come up with with the budget you have then why bother?

August 22, 2008

Yes, I know it is just an advertisement

I find the Boom De Yada advertisement for the Discovery Channel an inspiring look at our shared monkey curiosity.

Actually, I find it a bit like the Where the Hell is Matt? video.

This comic blew my mind

Sick and true
Voting Machines

Why some countries are rich and others are poor

I share with you this tragic story of human drive, ingenuity, hard work envy, and socialism from a fabulous article on the loss and repair of farming soils, Our Good Earth.

For a time Ouédraogo worked with a farmer named Yacouba Sawadogo. Innovative and

independent-minded, he wanted to stay on his farm with his three wives and 31 children. "From my grandfather's grandfather's grandfather, we were always here," he says. Sawadogo, too, laid cordons pierreux across his fields. But during the dry season he also hacked thousands of foot-deep holes in his fields—zaï, as they are called, a technique he had heard about from his parents. Sawadogo salted each pit with manure, which attracted termites. The termites digested the organic matter, making its nutrients more readily available to plants. Equally important, the insects dug channels in the soil. When the rains came, water trickled through the termite holes into the ground. In each hole Sawadogo planted trees. "Without trees, no soil," he says. The trees thrived in the looser, wetter soil in each zai. Stone by stone, hole by hole, Sawadogo turned 50 acres of wasteland into the biggest private forest for hundreds of miles.

Using the zaï, Sawadogo says, he became almost "the only farmer from here to Mali who had any millet." His neighbors, not surprisingly, noticed. Sawadogo formed a zaï association, which promotes the technique at an annual show in his family compound. Hundreds of farmers have come to watch him hack out zai with his hoe. The new techniques, simple and inexpensive, spread far and wide. The more people worked the soil, the richer it became. Higher rainfall was responsible for part of the regrowth (though it never returned to the level of the 1950s). But mostly it was due to millions of men and women intensively working the land.

Last year Reij made a thousand-mile trek across Mali and then into southwestern Burkina with Edwige Botoni, a researcher at the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel, a regional policy center in Burkina. They saw "millions of hectares" of restored land, Botoni says, "more than I had believed possible." Next door in Niger is an even greater success, says Mahamane Larwanou, a forester at Abdou Moumouni Dioffo University in Niamey. Almost without any support or direction from governments or aid agencies, local farmers have used picks and shovels to regenerate more than 19,000 square miles of land.

Economics as much as ecology is key to Niger's success, Larwanou says. In the 1990s the Niger government, which distributed land in orthodox totalitarian fashion, began to let villagers have more control over their plots. People came to believe that they could invest in their land with little risk that it would be arbitrarily taken away. Combined with techniques like the zaï and cordons pierreux, land reform has helped villagers become less vulnerable to climate fluctuations. Even if there were a severe drought, Larwanou says, Nigeriens "would not feel the impact the way they did in 1973 or 1984."

Burkina Faso has not recovered as much as Niger. Sawadogo's story suggests one reason why. While villagers in Niger have gained control over their land, smallholders in Burkina still lease it, often for no charge, from landowners who can revoke the lease at the end of any term. To provide income for Burkina's cities, the central government let them annex and then sell land on their peripheries—without fairly compensating the people who already lived there. Sawadogo's village is a few miles away from Ouahigouya, a city of 64,000 people. Among the richest properties in Ouahigouya's newly annexed land was Sawadogo's forest, a storehouse of timber. Surveyors went through the property, slicing it into tenth-of-an-acre parcels marked by heavy stakes. As the original owner, Sawadogo will be allotted one parcel; his older children will also each receive land. Everything else will be sold off, probably next year. He watched helplessly as city officials pounded a stake in his bedroom floor. Another lot line cut through his father's grave. Today Yacouba Sawadogo is trying to find enough money to buy the forest in which he has invested his life. Because he has made the land so valuable, the price is impossibly high: about $20,000. Meanwhile, he tends his trees. "I have enough courage to hope," he says.

Remember this story the next time someone tells you that development aid is the answer. Africans are not as helpless as these seem, and their governments are are more culpable that casual inspection suggests.

August 21, 2008

Someone is awake over there

I just noticed in the Amazon Kindle's demo video that the very first text that they show you is an excerpt from Neal Stephenson's Diamond Age. For those not in the know, Diamond Age is a fantastic sci-fi story centering around a nano-technology based book which can change its pages to show video and different text as needed and is able to download information from the internet (or what the internet becomes). That makes it an inspired choice as the text to show on the Kindle.

Oh, and by the way, you can buy a kindle for $70 off if you have an Amazon Visa and $100 if you are willing to get one. That means you can have it for less than $300. I have to say that is quite tempting. And since you can use the Wisper Net for free with the experimental browser, you can use it to check your email and read your Google Reader for free. Maybe that's not much to the fancy Iphone and Blackberry users out there, but to me I can buy a kindle for the price of less than 6 months worth of internet access on my phone. Woot!

August 20, 2008

Interesting comment of the day

I thought it was interesting that the estimated electoral votes by each of the major presidential candidates is effectively a tie: Obama 264 McCain 261 Ties 13. I shared it with a politically minded member of my extended family.

He wrote back with a comment I haven't heard put this well before:

Indeed, he seems to be suffering from the length of the election cycle...One thing is clear -- Obama won’t win on his own strength -- he’ll be carried on the Democrats' coattails rather than the reverse.
. I guess a lot of people have said that this is the Democrats' year, what with "everyone" so mad at Bush's performance, but a lot of people have also pointed out what a charismatic, tall, articulate, and demographically desirable candidate Obama is as well.

August 19, 2008

Funny insanity

How to win a fight against twenty children

Oh, and did you see this?

Lifelike animation heralds new era for computer games

August 15, 2008

Enhancing video using still photography

Check out this amazing video that demonstrates a new technique for enhancing the color, lighting and even composition of video by taking photographs of the the same scene and using a computer to integrate them. It seems that many of these tasks had been accomplished before in other ways. However, if you take their word for it, it hasn't been done as neatly and well as they have done it in this project.

Using Photographs to Enhance Videos of a Static Scene
Bhat P., Zitnick L., Snavely N., Agarwala A., Agrawala M., Curless B., Cohen M., Kang S. Using Photographs to Enhance Videos of a Static Scene. Eurographics Symposium on Rendering (EGSR) 2007.

August 14, 2008

More related headlines?

U.S. and Poland Agree to Missile Defense Deal

and

Russia Vows to Support Two Enclaves, in Retort to Bush

Further discussion of America and free Europe's choices in dealing with a newly bellicose Russia over at Q and O in Krauthammer (and others) whiffs

What to do with a lot of cash?

Not that I have this problem, but it is possible to get the federal government to insure your bank deposits for more than the $100,000 that the FDIC insures without splitting it up with accounts at many banks. The program is called the Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service or CDARS, pronounced "cedars." and it allows you to have up to $50 million in FDIC insured deposits. There are also a few other special retirement accounts that are insured up to $250,000.

But what exactly are you insuring here? Part of the insurance you are buying here (they lower yields on the CDs by 15 basis points) is against a horrific bank failure where multiple US banks fail. THat certainly is possible, but one has to be concerned against the FDIC being able to pay out against claims under such circumstances. Even if they can, will they do so with money from the government printing presses unleashing inflation that eats up much of the value of your investment any way? So if you are planning to hold a massive amount of cash, I suggest considering a bit of currency and government diversification. The International Association of Deposit Insurers notes that "As of 2008, 99 countries have instituted some form of explicit deposit insurance–up from 12 in 1974." Therefore, you could easily open up accounts near the limit in every country that provides fully insured deposits and is well governed. Then no one country's economic implosion would affect your access to valuable and liquid assets. The administration and FX costs wouldn't be trivial, but the quality of insurance might be significantly better.

A couple of business ideas

I went on a bike ride with a friend yesterday and as we talked we talked about our two new business ideas we had.

First is his idea which I share with his permission.
You know head shops, the places that sell marijuana paraphernalia, silly t-shirts, and black light posters? His idea was for a head shop that took trade-ins on pieces. He had recently found a very expensive bong in the trash that he didn't care for. He thought, wouldn't it be great if he he could clean it really well and trade it in for something he liked at a store. He mentioned other stories of people finding pieces they didn't like or simply growing tired of the ones they had. The deal would be that you would clean your piece, show id (like a pawn shop) to reflect where the piece came from, and then you'd get store credit towards buying something else. A functioning two-way market could encourage non-illegal uses for the glass-art like collection and illegal users could avoid wasting a hundred dollars or more on pieces that they later decided they didn't like. Of if a bum roommate left nothing behind but a water pipe you could at least get a couple of Grateful Dead t-shirts out of it.

My idea was for a hair thickening shampoo with sunblock built in. Many balding men have to carefully put sunblock on their heads after they shower in the morning to protect their scalps from the sun. This product would be marketed as an all-in-one scalp and hair treatment to simplify morning preparations. Simply apply it to your scalp and as the foam washes and thickens your hair it also protects your scalp. The soap washes away but the sunblock doesn't. If chemically that isn't possible then you could combine a scalp treatment, sunblock and hair styling gel for those with thinning but not entirely absent hair.

August 13, 2008

Ways to help Georgia

I didn't have many ideas on how to help Georgia (I wish I understood what was happening in Georgia better) but I did think we should do something. Even the ceasefire seems to have been abandoned by Russia (Bush Sends Aid to Georgia as Russians Occupy a City). The WSJ provided a harsh but accurate assessment of what could be done for Georgia.

Much as it respects and owes Georgia, the U.S. is not going to war with Russia over a non-NATO ally. But there are forceful diplomatic and economic responses at its disposal. Expelling Russia from the G-8 group of democracies, as John McCain has suggested, is one. Barring Russia's long desired entry into the World Trade Organization is another. Russian leaders should also be told that their financial assets held abroad aren't off limits to sanction. And Moscow should know that the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi on the Black Sea are in jeopardy. A country that starts a war on the weekend the Beijing Olympics began doesn't deserve such an honor.

The Georgian people also deserve U.S. support. One way to demonstrate that would be a "Tbilisi airlift," ferrying military and humanitarian supplies to the Georgian capital, which is currently cut off by Russian troops from its Black Sea port. Secretary of State Rice or Defense Secretary Robert Gates should be in one of the first planes. After the fighting ends, the U.S. can lead the recovery effort. And since the Russians are demanding his ouster, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili deserves U.S. support too. Moscow wants a puppet leader in Tbilisi, and U.S. officials are playing into Valdimir Putin's hands with their media whispers that this is all Mr. Saakashvili's fault.

Bush and Georgia

Meanwhile, the NY Times reports that some of this is already happening:

The United States, Mr. Bush said, “stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and insists that its sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected.” He said a transport plane was already on its way to Georgia, carrying medical supplies and a contingent of Army and Navy forces to carry out an aid mission.

There probably are some Georgians that hope that Russian military forces end up killing some of our troops as a causus belli for our active participation in the conflict. Then again, when we hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade the Chinese accepted our apologies, so maybe that wouldn't happen.

Newest Bond movie

I noticed that the next Bond Movie will be called Quantum of Solace.

What do you think are the odds that the word quantum is used properly? I looked up quantum in the dictionary and was surprised to learn that it can be used to mean both a large quantity and the smallest amount of something. So if complying with any of the definitions counts, then I'd say it is a high probability.

Interesting words of the day

Bryan Caplan offers a motivation for discrimination on the basis of statistical features of the group being discriminated against.

A key building block of statistical discrimination is the assumption of stereotype accuracy. For statistical discrimination to be stable, the stereotypes that market participants rely upon must be accurate statistical generalizations. ... The upshot is that stereotypes may actually be self-reversing rather than self-fulfilling. The marginal payoff of distinguishing yourself from the pack is high if people think poorly of the typical member of the pack. ...

Some young women are 100% focused on their careers, and don't want kids. Most young women, however, do want kids, and intend to strike a balance between work and family. That balance often involves receiving expensive job training from a firm, then quiting before the firm can recoup its expenses.

Under current law, an employer isn't even allowed to ask about a female applicant's child-bearing plans. If you wanted to blow up the glass ceiling, though, you should not only allow employers to ask; you should allow them to offer deals like "We'll hire you, but your health insurance doesn't cover pregnancy." The career woman would be happy to sign, reassuring the employer.

How will that help women? It won't! On average, it's a wash: It will help career-minded women, and hurt the rest. And if you want to judge female workers on the basis of individual productivity, that is exactly what should happen.


The Truth Hurts: What Harford Didn't Say About Statistical Discrimination

Three cheers for a sense of humor

I've long disliked people without a sense of humor. For that reason, while I've respected Martha Stewart for her business accomplishments and her massive home making skills, I haven't really liked her personally in the sense of wanting to meet or know her because she seems so humorless. I'm pleased to report that I was wrong about her. Not only does she have a sense of humor, but she has one strong enough to make fun of herself. I found out this morning that she will be launching Mystery Science Theater 3000-type show where she makes fun of the the earliest episodes of her Martha Stewart Living show.

And so, Whatever, Martha! was born. The Fine Living Network will unveil the new comedy series on September 16. It will be hosted by Alexis Stewart, Martha's daughter, and Jennifer Koppelman Hutt, Alexis Stewart's cohost on the Martha Stewart Radio show Whatever. The two will poke fun of Martha's unfortunate outfits, anal retentive tendencies, and "habit of mixing sexual innuendo with her household hints."

...
"Contrary to popular opinion, I do have a sense of humor," Martha told the New York Times, which reported on the new show. The sense of humor will breathe new life into old material, like the fabulous old-school Martha clips below.


'Whatever, Martha!' Mocks Vintage Martha Stewart TV Shows

Martha Stewart is not widely known for her sense of humor. But she is in on this particular joke. In fact, she created it, dreaming up the premise after watching reruns of "Mystery Science Theater 3000" during a sleepless night. That series, produced from 1988 to 1999, delivered sarcastic commentary about old horror movies, and had blossomed into a cable cult hit. ... And what if her core audience members don’t find it funny? "My die-hard fans might get upset," Martha Stewart said. "If they do, then they just shouldn’t watch it."
Show Skewers Martha Stewart, With Her Blessing

August 2008

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
          1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31            

Advertising


What is a belligerati?
Copyright (C) 2002 - 2008. All rights reserved.

This is a personal web site, a laboratory to explore ideas which I may not hold in my corporeal form Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of my employer, past or present, or any other organization with which I may be affiliated. Any investment related advice is for entertainment and educational purposes only. These entries are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. You should get expert financial advice specific to your risk appetite, age, and means before making any investments.
Powered by
Movable Type 3.35
Hosted by
1 and 1